Discover where the forecast still earns its place and how senior leaders can put push and pull to work, each for the job it does best
The case for pull is proven. The harder question is what to do with the decisions pull cannot make — the new product with no sales history, the capacity that takes eighteen months to install, the Black Friday spike that lands well inside your replenishment lead time. Throw the forecast away, and those decisions get made badly or not at all.
This perspective, a companion to Algo’s four-part Trillion Dollar Forecast series, is written for the senior leaders who want the full value of demand-driven execution without losing the forecast where it still matters. It names the one question that decides push or pull for any decision in the chain, the two jobs the forecast keeps once it stops driving replenishment, and the handover most companies never design — including a better way to stress-test the operating model before the volatility arrives.
- Give the Forecast Its Real Jobs: Use it to size buffers for seasons and promotions, build ahead for one-time spikes, and prepare for launches and long-lead capacity — and never let it create the replenishment orders that belong to pull.
- Design the Handover: Plan the point where a new item moves from launch forecast to consumption, and back to a planned run-down at end of life, so you stop carrying a year of excess or stocking out on a weak early signal.
- Stress-Test the Model, Not the Number: Hold the demand level constant and vary the noise to prove, through DDS&OP, that your buffers and capacity will hold — so your team can run to consumption and step in only by exception.