Vendor Allocations Are Tightening — Are You Planning for Black Friday Now?

It’s only June, but the signs are already there. Stock is constrained, suppliers are restless, and the competition for high-demand inventory is intensifying week by week.

If vendor allocations are already tightening, imagine what Q4 will look like.

Retailers that delay their demand planning for Black Friday risk being caught in a scramble — fighting over limited stock, paying higher logistics costs, and missing critical sales windows. The ones who win? They’re already forecasting, securing inventory, and giving suppliers the confidence to prioritize them.

Early Signs: Stock Constraints Are Already Here

The warning signs aren’t subtle — they’re showing up in weekly allocations, extended lead times, and reactive supplier communications.

• Allocations are tighter than usual, even for historically reliable SKUs.
• Supply chains remain under pressure, especially for categories reliant on international manufacturing. In April 2024, S&P Global’s Supply Chain PMI noted lead times had increased for the third consecutive month amid growing global uncertainty.
• Vendors are increasingly risk-averse, continuously reforecasting based on global conditions — from tariffs and raw material price hikes to recession concerns and geopolitical instability (McKinsey, 2025).

Retailers who are just now thinking about Q4 planning may already be behind the curve.

Why Late Planning Comes at a Cost

Black Friday doesn’t just spike demand — it strains every part of the retail operation. And the cost of being unprepared can be significant.

• Last-minute orders lead to longer lead times and premium freight charges, as expedited options become the only way to meet delivery windows. According to Deloitte’s 2024 Retail Outlook, “retailers relying on reactive supply chains saw shipping costs rise by as much as 30% during peak periods.”
• Reactive buying increases the risk of stockouts or excess markdowns, both of which erode margin.
• Late or poor communication undermines supplier confidence, making it harder to secure priority status in constrained allocation environments.
• Importantly, planning isn’t just about inventory volume — it’s about inventory flow. Delays at the planning stage can result in:
  1. Storage constraints at distribution centers (DCs), leading to overflow costs
  2. Retail bottlenecks, where too much stock arrives too fast without in-store coordination
  3. Last-mile inefficiencies, from labor shortages to overtime costs, which Retail Dive notes are one of the top 3 concerns for holiday operations in 2024
  4. Poor timing of inbound stock, where inventory arrives after peak demand has passed, leading to missed sales opportunities and markdowns as unsold stock lingers on shelves post-event.

The Advantage of Early Demand Planning

Retailers that plan early are better positioned to make smarter decisions, move faster, and stay ahead.

• More time to model demand scenarios and stress-test assumptions across product lines
• Greater leverage and collaboration with vendors, with more favorable allocations, pricing, and promotional support
• Improved alignment between inventory and marketing, ensuring campaigns reflect available stock
• Agility to pivot if trends shift or consumer sentiment changes
• Stronger operational planning across stores and warehouses — early visibility allows logistics, fulfilment, and retail teams to coordinate shelf stocking, labor rosters, and inbound flows with precision

BCG research highlights that companies who incorporate AI into their planning cycles see up to 15% fewer inventory imbalances and a 30% improvement in supplier collaboration.

How Algo Supports Smarter Forecasting

Algo helps leading retailers shift from reactive to proactive with intelligent tools that drive confidence and control across the planning process.

• AI-powered forecasting, tailored to seasonal surges like Black Friday, enables better accuracy with fewer assumptions
• Real-time data inputs adjust plans dynamically as sales trends shift, promotions change, or vendor availability evolves
• End-to-end supply chain visibility allows planners to flag risks and make informed decisions early
• Scenario modeling lets users anticipate SKU velocity and make adjustments before it’s too late
• Built-in collaboration tools empower internal teams and vendors to co-plan in real time — reducing silos and increasing speed
• Role-based planning flexibility ensures everyone from Planners to Sales Execs can work at the level they own, without stepping on each other’s toes

Companies using integrated planning platforms with role-based workflows and dynamic data updates are consistently better equipped to respond to volatility with speed and precision.

Conclusion: Early Planning Is a Competitive Edge

In retail, timing is everything. And when vendor allocations are tightening, shipping costs are spiking, and supply chains remain fragile, early planning isn’t just smart — it’s essential.

But it’s not only about being early. The retailers who consistently win peak seasons like Black Friday are those who treat planning as a strategic capability — not a reactive process. They don’t just forecast demand — they build systems that allow them to sense change, adapt quickly, and align execution across every channel. And because they’ve created that breathing room, they’re not just keeping up — they’re scanning for commercial opportunities and acting on them with confidence before competitors even see them coming.

This is the new standard:

• AI-powered planning, not static forecasts
• Collaborative workflows, not silos between merchandising and logistics
• Scenario flexibility, not rigid seasonal calendars

Black Friday has become a test of agility, not just volume. And as economic volatility, and omnichannel pressures reshape the retail landscape, forecasting is becoming a leadership function — one that directly impacts growth, margin, and resilience.

At Algo, we’re helping retailers operationalize this mindset — equipping their teams with the visibility, flexibility, and intelligence they need to plan smarter, act faster, and outperform the market.

If you want to turn Q4 into a competitive advantage, it starts now.